Measuring outcomes vs. expectations

Performance Tracking Framework

Systematically comparing forecasted results with actual outcomes improves decision-making and strategy refinement.

Key Performance Metrics

1. Forecast Accuracy

• Hit Rate: % of correct direction calls
• Magnitude Accuracy: Target price achievement
• Timing Precision: Forecast vs. actual duration

2. Risk/Reward Realization

Metric	Calculation	Benchmark
Actual Reward/Risk	Avg win / Avg loss	≥ Forecasted ratio
Win Rate	Winning trades / Total	≥ Forecast probability

QuantWave Performance Tools

1. Trade Analyzer

• Automatically matches forecasts to outcomes
• Calculates variance percentages
• Flags significant deviations

2. Performance Dashboard

• Visualizes forecast vs. actual results
• Tracks metrics over time
• Compares strategy variations

Analysis Framework

1. The 5-Point Post-Trade Review

1. Direction accuracy (correct/incorrect)
2. Price target achievement (% reached)
3. Timeframe accuracy (early/late/on-time)
4. Risk management effectiveness
5. Execution quality

2. Variance Classification

• Forecast Error: Model limitations
• Execution Error: Implementation mistakes
• Market Shock: Unforeseen events

Continuous Improvement Cycle

• Weekly performance reviews
• Monthly strategy assessments
• Quarterly parameter refinements
• Annual system evaluation

Common Measurement Mistakes

• Small sample size judgments
• Ignoring market context
• Overemphasizing recent results
• Confusing luck with skill

QuantWave's performance tracking transforms trading from guesswork to measurable improvement. By rigorously comparing outcomes to expectations, traders can identify genuine edges, correct implementation errors, and systematically enhance their results over time.